Nielsen xAOC + C: Beer, FMBs & Wine Update - The Wedbush View
November 15, 2022
The Wedbush View.
STZ remains the notable outperformer within core beer
TAP generating best in class price/mix, showing improved performance in core beer and gaining share on a combined (beer, cider & FMBs) basis, largely due to strength in FMBs
NAPA and STZ outperforming, gaining share in wine
SAM's hard seltzer performance has yet to hit a trough as sales and market share continue to deteriorate
Nielsen Recap. In the most recent 4-week period ended 11/5/22 in Nielsen xAOC (food, drug, mass, and grocery) + C (convenience), sales performance for every category analyzed herein excluding wine improved relative to the prior 4-week period. Core beer was the best performing category, with sales up 7.8%, marking an improvement / acceleration in trend on a YoY, two-year and three-year basis.
STZ continues to notably outperform the category with 180 bps of share gains. Combined beer (which includes core beer, FMBs and cider) grew 7.4% on slower growth in FMBs (+5.4%) largely attributable to high-single digit declines in hard seltzer (-8.0%). Outside of STZ, TAP has seen its market position continue to benefit from better performance in beer and very strong performance in FMBs, largely attributable to Simply Spiked distribution gains and outperformance in hard seltzer, while for SAM, market share losses in hard seltzer continue to offset relative strength in Twisted Tea and to a lesser extent Hard Mtn Dew. In wine, NAPA continues to meaningfully outpace the overall category, while STZ also continues to gain share of category.