NIELSEN XAOC + C-STORE ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE ANALYSIS
November 15, 2022
THE COWEN INSIGHT
In the 4 weeks ended 11/5/22 in Nielsen xAOC + c-store, dollar sales for combined beer (incl. beer / FMBs / cider), FMBs and cider were all above their respective 12-week trends. Meanwhile, 4-week trends for hard seltzer improved ~220 bps from the prior 4-week period to -8.0% (on a 150 bps harder comp).
In the 4 weeks ended 11/5/22, dollar sales of combined beer grew 7.4% YoY while share shifts within the category primarily favored imports, followed by regulars and hard tea. Meanwhile, dollar sales of all beer subcategories outside of domestic and craft were up. Hard seltzer dollar sales decreased 8.0% YoY in the last 4 weeks (vs. 12-week decrease of 9.9%), an improvement of ~220 bps from the prior period sales decrease of 10.2% for the 4 weeks ended 10/8/22. With a 7.6% share of the combined beer category (down 127 bps YoY), hard seltzer remained below its peak share of 12.1%, achieved in the 4 w/e 7/17/21, due to category growth normalization. Hard tea grew 39.4% in the last 4-week period (above 12-week growth of 37.8%).
Combined Beer Sales Up MSD
Within combined beer, dollar sales increased 7.4%, above the +6.1% in the 12-week period ended 11/5/22. STZ continued to outperform its peers and the category with dollar sales up 16.9% (vs. 12-wk growth of 17.4%), inclusive of a 17.8 pt contribution from beer. Meanwhile, TAP saw 4-wk dollar sales growth of 8.3% (vs 12-wk growth of 6.6%), inclusive of a 6.2 pt contribution from beer and a 2.1 pt contribution from FMBs incl. hard seltzer. SAM saw 4-wk dollar sales growth of 4.6% (vs. 12-wk growth of 2.5%) as the 14.9 pt contribution from FMBs excl. hard seltzer (e.g., hard tea) offset negative contributions from other categories (most notably hard seltzer at -10.1 pts). ABI (+6.1%) continued to underperform the category though showed better trends relative to 12-week performance.