US Nielsen: 4 Weeks to 5 November

November 15, 2022



US Nielsen across US beer/spirits for 4 weeks to 5 November shows: 1) Improvement for beer (+13.4% vs +9.6%) on 3yr stack and slighter weaker for spirits (+30.2% vs 32.7%); 2) Price mix improving for beer +8.0% (prev +5.8%) and spirits to -1.5% (-1.8%). We continue to see a favourable med-term outlook for spirits given share of throat tailwinds and premiumisation opportunities, and expect the industry to normalise towards historical levels of MSD.



Key takeaways from the dataset. Spirits value growth 4 weeks to 5 November +5.1% (prev 4 wks +6.9%). Beer value +7.8% (prev 4 weeks +6.4%) vs 52 week trend +1.8%. On a 3-yr basis trends are improving for beer +13.4% vs prev +9.6%, slightly weaker for spirits at +30.2% (vs prev 32.7%).



Price/mix boost in beer, slight improvement for spirits. Beer price/mix has picked up again, reaching +8.0% in 4 weeks to 5 November (prev 5.8%) in November and ytd +5.2%. There was limited elasticity of demand impact for beer with industry vols -0.2% vs prior month +0.6%. Spirits price/mix improved slightly to -1.5% (prev -1.8%) and ytd -2.0%, held back by spirits based RTDs. Industry price/mix differs by category with MSD+ for brown spirits cognac, american whiskey and tequila and +LSD for white spirits vodka/rum.



Spirits: Growth moderation YoY and 3yr stack. Spirit value growth 4 weeks to 5 November +5.1% (prev 4 wks +6.9%) with volume +6.6% (+8.7%). Price/mix -1.5% vs previous -1.8%. We would highlight that Nielsen represents 16-17% of the market in value terms and does not include on-trade or independent retailers.



DGE vols/value -1.4%/+0.1% (vs +0.6%/+2.8%), 3 year stack +21.2% (+22.6%).

Pernod vols/value -3.8%/-1.1% (vs -0.1%/+1.3%), 3 year stack +15.5% (+18.3%).

Campari vols/value -9.6%/-2.1% (vs -8.7%/-1.2%), 3 year stack +19.3% (+19.4%).

Remy vols/value -18.5%/-17.1% (vs -18.4%/-16.5%), 3 year stack +50.2% (+53.7%).



Beer: improving print, strong price mix and 3yr stack improvement. Beer value growth 4 weeks to 5 November +7.8% (prev 4 wks +6.4%) vs 52 week trend +1.8%. 3 year stack value +13.4% (+9.6%). Hard Seltzers value -8.0% vs previous month -10.2% with growth lower than 52 week trend -7.6%. Beer Price mix +8.0% vs previous +5.8%

ABI vols/value -1.4%/+7.2% (vs -0.5%/+5.1%) with growth ahead of nearest mainstream competitor TAP -1.8%/+6.6% (vs -1.6%/+4.0%). 3 year stack ABI value +8.8% (+4.2%). ABI hard seltzers -34.0%/-29.6% vs -36.8%/-34.0%.

HEIA Mexican & European brand vols/value -11.4%/-5.9% (vs -10.4%/-6.3%), 3 year stack +2.3% (+1.2%).

HEIA (Heineken brand) vols/value -6.7%/-2.2% (vs -8.5%/-4.9%), 3 year stack +11.1% (+8.5%).



FEVR US Nielsen - Improved print on 2 and 3yr stack, tougher YoY comp. 4wk value growth +5.1% vs previous 4 weeks +10.7%. Sales up +10.1% YTD vs 10.7% previously. Improvement on a 2 year stack +38.7% vs previous 4 weeks +31.2%. 3 year stack +94.3% vs previous 4 weeks +90.7%. Note that comps continue to toughen in Nov (+41.9%) and Dec (+46.1%) The US accounts for 25% of group sales. Nielsen covers c.50% of FEVR US off-trade sales, which is c.70% of total.

Next News. Remy reports H1 profits on 24 November - see H1 sales results



------

​